Scientists Uncover New Method to Predict Major Earthquakes Months in Advance

Researchers have discovered a groundbreaking method to predict major earthquakes months in advance by identifying subtle, low-level seismic activity. Led by Társilo Girona, a research assistant professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), the study focused on the 2018 Anchorage earthquake and the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence.

Girona’s team developed a machine learning algorithm to analyze seismic data, uncovering patterns that signal potential earthquakes. The study found that in the months leading up to both the Anchorage and Ridgecrest quakes, abnormal low-magnitude seismic activity (below 1.5) spread across 15% to 25% of the affected regions. This low-level unrest pointed to an increased likelihood of a major quake, with probabilities spiking to 80% about three months before the Anchorage earthquake.

The researchers believe that a rise in pore fluid pressure within fault lines could cause this precursor activity. This pressure buildup might lead to fault slippage, triggering a major earthquake.

The team’s algorithm, published in Nature Communications on August 28, 2024, shows promise for future earthquake forecasting. However, Girona emphasizes the importance of cautious application, as false alarms could cause public panic, while missed predictions could have dire consequences.